Thursday, 25 March 2010

Card-driven Turn Sequences: Testing the theory

I decide to test my latest idea for a card-driven turn sequence by making up a pack of cards, shuffling them, and seeing what the results were.

The pack contained 24 Black cards, 18 Red cards, and 3 Jokers. I shuffled the pack using an automatic shuffling machine every time a Joker ended the run of cards, and ran through a sequence of eight ‘turns’. The results were as follows:
  1. Black, Red, Black, Black, Black, Black, Red, Red, Black, Black, Black, Red, Black, Black, Black, Red, Red, Black, Black, Black, Red, Black, Black, Red, Red, Red, Red, Black, Black, Black, Black, Red, Red, Joker: 33 cards (20 x Black, 13 x Red)
  2. Black, Red, Joker: 2 cards (1 x Black, 1 x Red)
  3. Black, Red, Red, Red, Black, Black, Red, Joker: 7 cards (3 x Black, 4 x Red)
  4. Black, Red, Black, Red, Red, Red, Black, Red, Black, Red, Black, Red, Red, Black, Red, Red, Joker: 16 cards (6 x Black, 10 x Red)
  5. Red, Red, Black, Black, Black, Black, Black, Black, Black, Red, Red, Red, Red, Red, Red, Red, Black, Red, Black, Black, Black, Joker: 21 cards (11 x Black, 10 x Red)
  6. Black, Red, Black, Red, Red, Joker: 5 cards (2 x Black, 3 x Red)
  7. Black, Black, Black, Black, Black, Joker: 5 cards (5 x Black, 0 x Red)
  8. Black, Red, Red, Black, Black, Red, Red, Black, Red, Black, Black, Red, Red, Black, Black, Black, Black, Black, Black, Black, Red, Red, Red, Red, Red, Red, Red, Black, Red, Black, Black, Black, Joker: 31 cards (17 x Black, 14 x Red)
The result were – to say the least – very variable, and more Red cards were turned over than one would have expected (the ratio of cards turned over was seventeen Red cards for every twenty Black cards whereas it should have been closer to fifteen Red cards for every twenty Black cards). Some of the turns were very long or very short, and some of the ‘runs’ of cards of a particular colour were too long for playability (a player may well feel aggrieved if they had to sit through a ‘run’ of seven Black or Red cards as occurred more than once during the test).

I think that this basic concept will work quite well with a bit more development. In particular I need to:
  • Reduce the ratio of Black and Red cards turned over until it gets closer to what it should be
  • Try to ensure that the length of the turns is more consistent
  • Try to ensure that the ‘runs’ of cards are not too extreme
Back to the drawing board!

6 comments:

  1. Conrad Kinch,

    I intend to conduct a few more tests later today using different combinations of cards to see if I can get closer to what I want to achieve.

    All the best,

    Bob

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi Bob

    How about the following:

    1. Have most cards as "Alternate" which ean that this turn goes to the side that didn't get the last go.

    2. Include a few red and/or black cards in addition; these guaruntee a go for the relevant side. If black is supposed to have an advantage then include more black cards, etc

    3. Add in jokers "to taste"

    If using standard playing cards, count number cards as "alternate" and J,Q,K,A as "black" or "red" cards.

    This would reduce the length of runs and even out player activity.

    Just a thought!

    Good luck, it is interesting to read of your experiments.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Steve,

    Thanks for the feedback.

    I am about halfway through doing some further testing, and the results do look promising.

    I will write a blog entry as soon as I have finished the test with the results and any conclusions I come to.

    All the best,

    Bob

    ReplyDelete
  4. "some of the ‘runs’ of cards of a particular colour were too long for playability"

    Perhaps this could be made into a virtue: give each general a rating by which there is a maximum length of a run. So the Austrians led by Charles of Lorraine at Leuthen would sit still (and allow the flank attack to develop) when a more active opponent would intervene.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Andy Mitchell,

    I must admit that I had not looked at it from that perspective.

    Food for thought ...

    All the best,

    Bob

    ReplyDelete