The following nine simple rules of war formed part of a recent online article by Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman. Having read them, I felt that I ought to share them with my regular blog readers.
- Do not depend on the first military move being decisive. If it is not decisive you will be fighting a very different war to the one envisaged;
- A poor performance in the early stages of a war will prolong its length if it does not lead to immediate defeat;
- It is easier to start wars than to end them;
- Forces are more determined when defending their own territory than when invading somebody else’s;
- Resistance does not necessarily conclude with the defeat of defending forces but can lead to insurgency. This is why it is always unwise to occupy countries where you will not be welcome.
- The longer wars go on the more important non-military considerations (national resilience/economic strength/ alliance and partnerships) become to their resolution;
- During the course of a war the political objectives for which it is being fought will change so that the prospective gains can justify the actual costs, thereby making them harder to conclude;
- The unintended consequences of wars are normally as if not more important than the intended;
- As Rules 1 to 8 are self-evident those political leaders who ignore them and launch a war are apt to achieve surprise, simply by being stupid.
Professor Sir Lawrence David Freedman, KCMG, CBE, PC, FBA is Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King's College London.
A thought-provoking summary…and if applied to the current situation in eastern Europe rings plenty of alarm bells.
ReplyDeleteMartin S.,
DeleteI think that Professor Freedman’s article applies his rules to the current situation in the Ukraine … and it make for very interesting reading. The impression that I have is that the war will drag on as a war of attrition until both sides are exhausted and the politicians decide to bring the war to an end.
My predictions are:
1. The Ukrainians will have lost territory, their economy will be in tatters, and they will have a desire for revenge.
2. The Russians will have acquired the Donbas - but it will be in a devastated state - her army will need a drastic reorganisation and re-equipment, and the Ukrainians will be an object of hated for generations to come.
3. The West will ring its collective hands … and then make money lending the Ukrainians huge amounts of cash to rebuild their economy … and try to grab as many of the contracts for the work as they possibly can.
All the best,
Bob
Bob -
DeleteI rather suspected that the professor might have had a particular war in mind. But, contrary to most people's apparent belief, I rather suspect Russia went into this war - its already having lasted eight years from 2014 - with its eyes very much open to the likely consequences.
On the whole, I reckon you're on the money with your predictions.
Cheers,
Ion
Archduke Piccolo (Ion),
DeleteI suspect that you may well be right. The Russians rarely make moves against another country unless they feel very confident of winning or that there is a 'clear and present danger' to their nation's security. They may have underestimated both the level of resistance the Ukrainians would make and the support the West would give them, but as the war progresses, it appears to me that the outcome has become one where neither side will emerge overwhelmingly victorious.
All the best,
Bob
I subscribe to Professor Freedmans' Substack; his essays are always really worth reading.
ReplyDeleteMaudlin Jack Tar,
DeleteI agree that his work is always worth reading.
I follow him on Twitter … and any relevant links from there.
All the best,
Bob
My feeling is that rule 9 could be applied to every war that has been fought since 1900 at least.... (and probably long before that!)
ReplyDeleteIan Dury,
DeleteVery true! I did see a ‘they are all a bit obvious‘ response to the list elsewhere online, but I actually think that sometimes it is good to record what might be obvious to some but not to all.
All the best,
Bob