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Sunday 2 October 2022

The High North

Yesterday I took part in an online political game about the High North (i.e. the Arctic region). As the ice cap melts, this is very likely to become the next part of the world where the different major world powers find themselves confronting each other for control of the exploitable resources that will become available. The scenario was set to take place in 2050, by which time it was expected that much of the Arctic region would be navigable and that seabed mining and oil extraction would be feasible.

I was a member of the Canadian team (Canada is a member of the Arctic Council) and was one of two negotiators who visited the other teams and players during the six-turn game. We used Zoom to meet for general end-of-turn plenary meetings, team meetings (in breakout rooms), and for individual negotiations (again in breakout rooms). The other teams/players were:

The negotiations and plenary votes on proposals went to and fro during the game, and although some progress was made, the situation remained unresolved by the end, although I think that quite a few issues were thrown up that require further investigation in future games.

This was a serious game, and I would not describe it as being fun ... but I did enjoy the experience and it did give me the opportunity to gain a greater understanding of this potential geo-political hotspot.

My thanks go to John Curry (of Bath Spa University) and Stephen Aguilar-Millan (of the European Future Observatory) for staging the game, and to Charlotte Aguilar-Millan for acting as the technical support.


Being a wargamer, I did some pre-game research into the military and quasi-military assets that Canada currently has or will have in the near future … and it makes for interesting reading. These assets are:

Canadian Assets

Military (Navy):

  • Six Harry DeWolf-class offshore patrol vessels are Arctic and Offshore Patrol Ship (AOPS). The class is armed with 1 × BAE Mk 38 25 mm (0.98 in) gun and 2 × M2 Browning machine gun and is equipped with a hangar and flight deck and can operate the Sikorsky CH-148 Cyclone and UMS Skeldar V-200/CU-176 Gargoyle drones. The ships can deploy with multiple payloads, including shipping containers, underwater survey equipment, landing craft, snowmobiles, and all-terrain vehicles, and have a 20-tonne (20-long-ton; 22-short-ton) crane for loading and unloading. They can also carry 22 military personnel in addition to their crew of 65. They are designed for use in the Arctic regions of Canada for patrol and support within Canada's exclusive economic zone.

HMCS Harry DeWolf. © Royal Canadian Navy.

Military (Air Force):

  • Fourteen Lockheed CP-140 Aurora maritime patrol aircraft based in Nova Scotia and Vancouver. Due to be replaced by the Boeing P-8 Poseidon or the Raytheon Sentinel.

Military (Army):

  • Canadian Rangers a 5,000-strong sub-component of the reserve that provides a limited military presence in Canada's sparsely settled northern, coastal, and isolated areas. They also conduct inspections of the North Warning System (NWS) sites.
  • Four Arctic Response Company Groups have been created to support the Regular Force and the Canadian Rangers in operations to ensure security and the protection of Canada's national security and sovereignty in the Canadian Arctic.
  • The Canadian Army is currently in the process of replacing its existing fleet of fourteen BV206s with a purchase of around one hundred vehicles, either the ST Kinetics Bronco 3 or the BAE Systems Hägglunds BvS 10 Beowulf.

Coast Guard:

  • Two polar icebreakers, two heavy icebreakers, seven medium icebreakers, seven high endurance multi-task vessels (with icebreaking capabilities), and two Harry DeWolf-class offshore patrol vessels. None of these are armed.

I also discovered that there are as yet to be solved problems with communication in the High North. These are:

  • Communications satellites operating in geostationary Earth orbit do not cover the area of the Arctic. Even when a link can be made, it can be prone to interruption from icing on antennas, or from disruption caused by heavy seas.
  • The Iridium satellite constellation can supply communications services in the Arctic, but there have been recorded cases of interruptions to the service which can last several minutes. It also does not provide the broadband communication that will be needed more and more with the development of human activities in the region, posing a challenge for the coming years 
  • The Canadian Space Agency has been developing the Polar Communications and Weather satellite (PCW) mission. Although the project is still being developed, it would comprise two satellites to serve Canada’s communication needs, as well as collecting information for the global research community on Arctic weather and climate.
  • In polar regions the ionosphere has rather different properties from those found elsewhere. These differences affect HF wave propagation in two important respects:
    • at frequencies below 30 mc./s., natural noise levels are lower than those existing in middle and low latitudes, and
    • the frequency of occurrence, duration, and severity of ionospheric disturbances is greater. The last factor is of major importance in designing arctic communication circuits.

Please note that most of the above information about communications is a 'cut and paste' exercise from various sources.

10 comments:

  1. Thank you Bob for interesting read. Canada as always, spends too little and too late for our defense needs. Even though the Raytheon Sentinel is derived from a Bombardier product, I can't believe they would be considered as suitable replacements for the Aurora.

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    Replies
    1. Rhingley,

      Cheers! I think that in some ways Canada is slightly better prepared than some other nations, but probably need a better-armed development of the Harry DeWolf-class in double numbers as well as suitable support vessels. The Poseidon is a much more capable aircraft than the Sentinel, and would certainly be my first choice.

      All the best,

      Bob

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  2. Great post Bob. I really enjoyed the experience of the game too.

    The extra details about Canada's military assests is most appreciated - the AOPS sound like rather impressive ships. Shame the RN doesn't have one to replace our Antartic ships as it sounds a bit better spec'd than HMS Protector.

    Cheers,

    Pete.

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    Replies
    1. Pete.,

      It was a very enlightening game. I wonder if it will be another of the predictive games I’ve taken part in over the years. These included the collapse of Yugoslavia … which we got reasonably right.

      The Canadian AOPS are based on a Norwegian design used by their Coast Guard, the Svalbard. Something similar (with at least a 76mm gun and the ability to operate helicopters and drones) would be an ideal replacement for our Ice Patrol Ship and to protect our interests in the High North, it’s interesting to note that the Russians are building something very similar (Project 23550).

      All the best,

      Bob

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  3. Nice perspective to hear from a participant in one of Curry's games. I've read his reports on others with interest - the light they can shine on real issues is eye opening. Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. Jennifer,

      It was very enlightening in a multitude of ways. From my own perspective, the pre-game research I did was perhaps of most interest to me, and I will be posting more of it on my blog.

      All the best,

      Bob

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  4. Bob -
    An interesting topic - and the sort of exercise I would have liked to have been involved in. The Arctic council set-up strikes me as one promising potential for collaborative operations in the region - cooperative in terms of exploitation and of protection - a fine juggling act, if you will.

    But, given the pi$$-haggard standard of leadership this planet is displaying right now, I have few hopes of any such cooperative spirit, let alone action.

    Cheers,
    Ion

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    Replies
    1. Archduke Piccolo (Ion),

      The Arctic Council is very much a talking shop, and has eight members (Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Russia, and the USA) with a number of observer countries. At present the chairmanship is held by the Russians, and the other nations are boycotting the Council due to the fighting in Ukraine.

      So whilst the ice cap melts and the exploitation of the Arctic increases, the politicians sit on their hands and do nothing … so no change there!

      All the best,

      Bob

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  5. It certainly was an interesting game and I am sad that I missed the first part, but it was good to see you in fine form as the Canadian "details man"! Well done, although it does seem a daunting scenario or problem to solve!

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    1. Geordie an Exile FoG,

      The game and the pre-game research I did was very interesting.

      It was very obvious from what I read, the current Canadian position is very proprietorial towards their section of the High North whilst trying to fend off growing pressure from the USA for access to any resources that might be there as well as to fresh water supplies in Canada.

      All the best,

      Bob

      Delete

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