The High North

Yesterday I took part in an online political game about the High North (i.e. the Arctic region). As the ice cap melts, this is very likely to become the next part of the world where the different major world powers find themselves confronting each other for control of the exploitable resources that will become available. The scenario was set to take place in 2050, by which time it was expected that much of the Arctic region would be navigable and that seabed mining and oil extraction would be feasible.

I was a member of the Canadian team (Canada is a member of the Arctic Council) and was one of two negotiators who visited the other teams and players during the six-turn game. We used Zoom to meet for general end-of-turn plenary meetings, team meetings (in breakout rooms), and for individual negotiations (again in breakout rooms). The other teams/players were:

• Russia (also a member of the Arctic Council)
• United States (also a member of the Arctic Council)
• China
• The EU
• Japan

The negotiations and plenary votes on proposals went to and fro during the game, and although some progress was made, the situation remained unresolved by the end, although I think that quite a few issues were thrown up that require further investigation in future games.

This was a serious game, and I would not describe it as being fun ... but I did enjoy the experience and it did give me the opportunity to gain a greater understanding of this potential geo-political hotspot.

My thanks go to John Curry (of Bath Spa University) and Stephen Aguilar-Millan (of the European Future Observatory) for staging the game, and to Charlotte Aguilar-Millan for acting as the technical support.

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Being a wargamer, I did some pre-game research into the military and quasi-military assets that Canada currently has or will have in the near future … and it makes for interesting reading. These assets are:

Canadian Assets

Military (Navy):

• Six Harry DeWolf-class offshore patrol vessels are Arctic and Offshore Patrol Ship (AOPS). The class is armed with 1 × BAE Mk 38 25 mm (0.98 in) gun and 2 × M2 Browning machine gun and is equipped with a hangar and flight deck and can operate the Sikorsky CH-148 Cyclone and UMS Skeldar V-200/CU-176 Gargoyle drones. The ships can deploy with multiple payloads, including shipping containers, underwater survey equipment, landing craft, snowmobiles, and all-terrain vehicles, and have a 20-tonne (20-long-ton; 22-short-ton) crane for loading and unloading. They can also carry 22 military personnel in addition to their crew of 65. They are designed for use in the Arctic regions of Canada for patrol and support within Canada's exclusive economic zone.

HMCS Harry DeWolf. © Royal Canadian Navy.

Military (Air Force):

• Fourteen Lockheed CP-140 Aurora maritime patrol aircraft based in Nova Scotia and Vancouver. Due to be replaced by the Boeing P-8 Poseidon or the Raytheon Sentinel.

Military (Army):

• Canadian Rangers a 5,000-strong sub-component of the reserve that provides a limited military presence in Canada's sparsely settled northern, coastal, and isolated areas. They also conduct inspections of the North Warning System (NWS) sites.
• Four Arctic Response Company Groups have been created to support the Regular Force and the Canadian Rangers in operations to ensure security and the protection of Canada's national security and sovereignty in the Canadian Arctic.
• The Canadian Army is currently in the process of replacing its existing fleet of fourteen BV206s with a purchase of around one hundred vehicles, either the ST Kinetics Bronco 3 or the BAE Systems Hägglunds BvS 10 Beowulf.

Coast Guard:

• Two polar icebreakers, two heavy icebreakers, seven medium icebreakers, seven high endurance multi-task vessels (with icebreaking capabilities), and two Harry DeWolf-class offshore patrol vessels. None of these are armed.

I also discovered that there are as yet to be solved problems with communication in the High North. These are:

• Communications satellites operating in geostationary Earth orbit do not cover the area of the Arctic. Even when a link can be made, it can be prone to interruption from icing on antennas, or from disruption caused by heavy seas.
• The Iridium satellite constellation can supply communications services in the Arctic, but there have been recorded cases of interruptions to the service which can last several minutes. It also does not provide the broadband communication that will be needed more and more with the development of human activities in the region, posing a challenge for the coming years 
• The Canadian Space Agency has been developing the Polar Communications and Weather satellite (PCW) mission. Although the project is still being developed, it would comprise two satellites to serve Canada’s communication needs, as well as collecting information for the global research community on Arctic weather and climate.
• In polar regions the ionosphere has rather different properties from those found elsewhere. These differences affect HF wave propagation in two important respects:
• at frequencies below 30 mc./s., natural noise levels are lower than those existing in middle and low latitudes, and
• the frequency of occurrence, duration, and severity of ionospheric disturbances is greater. The last factor is of major importance in designing arctic communication circuits.

Please note that most of the above information about communications is a 'cut and paste' exercise from various sources.